Eight Reasons for Hope and Optimism. And why we need to seize this moment.

Despite Trump’s bulldozing of the world, and the vulnerabilities, uncertainties and trauma affecting many societies, this time of polycrisis is also a time to celebrate. And especially, to act with vision and purpose.

(Note: Some key resources for this post can be found in the links at the end.)

One – We need to welcome Trump’s interventions. When systems are increasingly unstable or disrupted, it is the best time to work towards drastic change.

Credit: USAID

Trump’s closure of USAID and withdrawal from UN agencies – and other efforts to bulldoze the world – are not only a wake-up call, but from a long-term perspective, a very positive development.

Among others, his actions remind us again that Aid is simply a Band-Aid. Rather than driving genuine development, it eases consciences while fostering dependence.

Scholars like Dambisa Moyo, James Sikwati, Raúl Prebisch, Osvaldo Sunkel, Ha-Joon Chang, Gilbert Achcar, Vladimir Popov and Jason Hickel have long argued that aid dependency is unsustainable. It masks deep structural inequalities and fails to address the deep causes of poverty. We know for years that aid often benefits donor countries more than recipients, not only because it is given primarily to cultivate soft power, but because much of the so-called aid funding statistics are misleading. In some countries like the US much circulates internally, going to rich consulting companies and INGOs. Less than 10% of its USAID funding goes directly to local actors – exactly why decolonisation is so important.

The key point is that the level of imperialist appropriation in the world economy is staggering. This is much more important than aid. Between 1990 and 2015 the drain from the Global South through exploitative trade, unfair debt repayments and mass extraction of resources totalled $242 trillion, equivalent to a quarter of Northern GDP!

Amid these exploitative ‘relationships’, who is helping whom? To quote Will Shoki from Africa is a Country: (Under these circumstances), why not bite the hand that feeds it?

We need to engage with the long term. Much needs to be done instead of reinforcing aid dependence. Of course the aid situation is complicated, and too many will suffer. But we need to consider the longer term: conscience-driven, influential professionals around the world should vigorously put pressure on those in power to make a real difference in the Global South – among the Global Majority – by making sure low- and middle-income countries get equal treatment in the global economy. Create global mass movements that give visibility to these issues, and push for fair trade, debt relief and an end to resource and labour exploitation!

Two – We are fortunate to live in this very significant era'

Systems are webs of interdependent relationships shaped by historical, cultural and contextual forces, by incentives, capabilities and power relations. When these connections are disrupted, inefficiencies and vulnerabilities are exposed, creating openings for new solutions. When systems start breaking down, old ways stop working and previously resistant groups become more open to change. Innovations and reforms are faster. Adaptive solutions, policy shifts and disruptions are more likely to occur. The way the parts of the system interact change dramatically, resulting in very different outcomes.

Suddenly, transformative change becomes much more possible.

Complexity theory explains how systems behave under stress. It reminds us that stability is often an illusion. See for example the notion of far-from equilibrium dynamics: The global order is a fairly fragile ecosystem. When major shifts occur — like China’s growing influence, the rise of the BRICS+ and the US weaponising the dollar—the world is not just changing gradually. Instead, these forces push the system to a breaking point (a tipping point).

The notion of punctuated equilibrium is like a sudden collapse after calm. It highlights that systems often appear stable for long periods —until they aren’t. A war, pandemic or financial crash can shatter this illusion of stability, triggering rapid, irreversible change.

The notion of an endogenous tipping point is like an internal time bomb. It highlights that some collapses are not caused by external shocks but by pressures brewing within. Mounting inequality, corruption or social unrest can create vicious cycles — think of public distrust fuelling protests, which then deepen polarisation — until the system buckles under its own weight.

Instability is not just chaos; it is also opportunity. Unstable systems are full of promise for those smart enough to act in positive ways. The immediate negative impacts of Trumps’s actions on aid recipients are heart-wrenching, and the anguish of sudden hardship among those who have benefitted from such funding very real. But how else will real systemic transformation occur except when systems are shaken or disrupted?

Three – Most people are better off today than at any time over the past few centuries – even if humanity is not

Credit: Unsplash

Human progress is often measured through flawed metrics, such as the famous elephant graph, which overlook the struggles of billions in an extractive global system. And of course, the future of humanity is now dire, given how we have destroyed nature. But we can celebrate many notable achievements:

Over the past century, extreme poverty has fallen from over 70% to less than 10%, with 1.2 billion lifted out of poverty in just the last 50 years, largely (800 million) in China. In the same period global literacy has risen from under 25% to over 86%.

Life expectancy has increased from 30-40 years in the 1920s to around 73 today, thanks to reduced infant mortality and technological and other advancements in living conditions and healthcare.

Many people are ageing longer and better, eating healthier in cleaner environments, and becoming aware that disease can be prevented through better management of their own wellbeing - including by blending different healing traditions.

Women have experienced significant progress in most parts of the world. Maternal mortality has dropped substantially, and over the last 50 years, female literacy surged from 59% to 86%. In sub-Saharan Africa there has been a 15-fold increase in female enrolment in the tertiary sector, while the number of female heads of state worldwide rose from 12 in 1995 to 31 in 2023.

Four – More and more people are moving beyond the dominant narratives created by concentrated soft power

Credit: iStockphoto: FilippBacci

Initiatives to transform systems not suited for this time are gaining momentum. In many countries politicians are now deservedly mistrusted, particularly among youth who increasingly prioritise responsive leadership—even authoritarian—over stagnant democratic institutions. Many efforts are emerging to overhaul outdated economic models, redirect capital, and change the destructive values and mindsets that led to the status quo. And where governments and the private sector fail to lead, cities, local communities, bioregional and transnational collaborations and movements are filling the void.

Citizens are more aware, looking for new solutions and perspectives. They leverage platforms like TikTok and X to bypass more severe traditional censorship and amplify marginalised perspectives – recently best demonstrated by the unfiltered Gaza conflict coverage that brought to life the first livestreamed genocide in history.

Breakthroughs that benefit citizens, can now spread around the world in a moment – demonstrated by DeepSeek, the Chinese AI model that stunned by outperforming leading systems in cost-efficiency and adaptability. This democratises access for low-income countries, with open-source models enabling solutions in areas like agriculture and healthcare using AI previously controlled by wealthy corporations.

Soft and hard power are shifting to reflect a much more a multipolar world. The legacies of coloniality are becoming more and more apparent. Even evaluators are becoming more aware of the dubious elements in the history of our craft, and the many serious issues still confronting it.

Five - We know much about how to make the world a better place, learning from and even blending across boundaries.

Many, many coalitions, collaborations and movements are emerging to catalyse the transitions and transformations the world needs – and developing and sharing knowledge about how to do this. Calls for new economics thinking and models are pushing towards transformation in the most important discipline shaping societies. Even in Davos, a focus on regeneration – which can include regenerative economies, regenerative capitalism, regenerative agrifood systems, even regenerative sustainability –took over from recent preoccupations with sustainability alone.

We can now blend the best of ancient, past and present wisdoms. We are interacting more than ever, learning to connect and integrate - spanning multiple boundaries, whether geographic, sectoral, disciplinary, generational, stakeholder, knowledge systems and/or ideological. Sudden phenomena like Rednote and DeepSeek help to show the value of creating bridges between cultures. A systems view of the world is taking root, giving us enticing insights into potential approaches to development not founded on the oppression or destruction of other societies.

Dominant narratives are receding – including about how change happens based on Western short-term, reductionist, linear thinking. We are increasingly recognising that ancient Indigenous, African and Eastern values and wisdoms reflect what we now refer to as systems and complexity theories. If only over past centuries these alternative foundations for societal behaviour were allowed to flourish!

We can now also blend modern scientific insights with those elements of mature philosophies from around the world that have for millennia reflected the best of humanity in all its diversity.

Six - A more assertive and successful Global Majority is giving new hope for the future

The Global South, linked through their colonial histories, is leading the way to a multi-polar world. Despite propaganda against initiatives such as the BRICS+, the Belt and Road Initiative, Mercosur, and the SCO alliance, their main objective is to have a world in which the Global Majority counts, and can thrive. Where warmongers are doing their best to get more and more weapons made and sold, powerful countries in the Global South remain steadfast in their focus on cooperation for development. A multipolar world is not a threat. It presents new opportunities for those interested in the flourishing of the world, rather than its destruction.

Contrary to Anglo-Western beliefs, dominance of the world is not the objective of all major nations. For example, in the 1,600 years during which they were the most powerful nation on earth (approx. 200 BCE-1800 CE), the mindset of the Chinese was never to conquer. The main aim of their political effort has been to sustain their society’s stability; it is only recently, with the US encircling China with around 400 military bases, that they have increased defence spending significantly. In contrast, China has only one military base outside the country (in Djibouti).

As economic successes grow, the Global Majority is becoming more confident and assertive. Their most impressive development efforts are seldom based on Western development models. Their voices shape global discussions. Inappropriate dominant narratives are less likely to influence their plans and decisions. Breakthrough DeepSeek and Qwen models are opening opportunities for AI in lower income countries. And who would have associated Burkina Faso with its own home-grown electric car?

Decolonisation is also yielding some results – return of some stolen treasures, growing resistance to the nauseating exploitation of strategic resources, refreshed governance models, and receipt of a smattering of acknowledgments and apologies of past colonial atrocities.

Over the past decade the most populous nation on earth has taken major strides towards a green economy.

Over the past decade, China has made significant progress toward a green economy. Since 2018 it has had the goal of becoming an ecological civilization embedded in its constitution. The government’s 13^th (2016-2020) and 14th Five-Year Plan (2021–2025) reflect the vision of “green is gold”, emphasising the integration of ecological principles into economic development while acknowledging the enormous challenge of transforming such a large economy.

China is known for over-delivering on its undertakings. It achieved its target of 1,200 GW of wind and solar capacity six years ahead of schedule. In 2024 it added a record 357 GW of wind and solar power (in comparison, the US added only 56 GW new power capacity). A major effort is also ongoing to green the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

By the end of 2022, 77% of urban public transport in China was powered by new energy vehicles, and in 2024, electric vehicles made up 53% of the new car market.

In 2023, China planted just under 4 million hectares of forest, restored over 4 million hectares of degraded grassland, and built or upgraded 34,000 hectares of urban green space while greening over 80,000 km of highways. To combat desertification almost 2 million hectares of land were treated, and 1.8 million hectares of desertified land sealed off for protection.

Seven - Nature is resilient

Credit: Unsplash

The ‘Gaia Hypothesis’ states that Earth is a self-regulating, interconnected living system that maintains and balances conditions for life. This is also reflected in Indigenous worldviews that emphasise reciprocity with nature, viewing Earth as a conscious entity that restores balance when humans disrupt it. And Eastern philosophies such as Daoism stress harmony with natural cycles, where resilience arises from yielding, adapting and flowing with change.

There are many examples that prove the adaptive ingenuity of Nature - its inherent capacity for regeneration, healing and balance:

In areas where deforestation has occurred, nature is reclaiming land through natural seed dispersal, allowing forests to regenerate. Some abandoned agricultural lands are turning into secondary forests. With some human help, nature quickly responds, even in concrete jungles.

Rewilding is often successful, for example reintroducing gray wolves to Yellowstone restored ecological balance, reviving riverside vegetation and biodiversity.

After the Chernobyl disaster, forests and species like wolves, lynx, and bears thrive in the exclusion zone.

During COVID-19, reduced human activity led to clearer skies and revived ecosystems, showing rapid natural recovery.

Bacteria and fungi are evolving to break down synthetic waste and restore soil fertility in degraded areas. This can contribute to ecosystem recovery.

Many species are rapidly adapting to urban environments, pollution, and climate change. Certain birds have evolved shorter wings to navigate cities better, while some fish species have developed resistance to pollutants.

Ecosystems bounce back after natural disasters. Forests recover after wildfires. Mangroves and wetlands regenerate after hurricanes or floods, stabilising coastlines and rebuilding habitats. Reefs rebound when stressors like pollution or overfishing are reduced, while some coral species are adapting to warmer waters.

Eight - We have not (quite) lost our humanity

Credit: From UNICEF/Patrick Brown

It is inspiring to see empathy among indifference. Many still care for others beyond their direct families, communities or societies. Just a few of countless examples:

International NGOs as well as volunteers from Europe continue to rescue migrants floundering in the Mediterranean. Often unnoticed small gestures give these special significance.

Médicines sans Frontieres and many other volunteer organisations save lives and increase wellbeing around the world, often in dangerous, conflict-ridden places. Although not always volunteers, organisations like the Red Cross and Red Crescent, WFP, UNHCR and UNRWA work tirelessly in challenging and dangerous conditions.

During the Covid-19 pandemic, many risked exposure to provide medical care, food and shelter to those without legal status or homes.

Local communities in Bangladesh and India supported Rohingya refugees fleeing Myanmar, offering food and shelter despite limited resources.

In places where governments are slow to act, citizens provide legal, medical, and humanitarian support for asylum seekers, while business owners assist refugees with work and housing.

Volunteers in many places in the Global South, even where resources are very limited, dedicate time to supporting their own and other communities.

Movements like ‘pay it forward’ inspire simple acts of selfless kindness, whether it is paying for someone’s coffee or anonymously donating to a cause.

Nine – Each one of us can make a difference

When things are chaotic – as they are increasingly in the world - small pockets of coherence emerge, reflecting areas of “joined-up-ness”, connecting to create new paradigms in coherent thought. They “drift into view out of a sea of chaos …. beautiful structures that make sense”.

Prigogine suggested that such islands of coherence can shift an entire system towards greater coherence, towards a higher order. Each of us who work towards a vision shared by others – even if we do not collaborate or even know about one another – can eventually become part of an “island of coherence” that contribute to transforming an outdated system.

Some of my key sources for this post

US approach to aid
Drain from the Global South
Extractive relationships
Of course it is complicated – a different white perspective on the aid industry
Who benefits from USAID
Global inequality and poverty reduction
The paradoxes of AI
Technocolonialism
Impact measurement – a cautionary tale
A new economics for our time
Seeking wisdom in Indigenous, Eastern and Western traditions
A multipolar world - new global alliances leave the West behind
South-South vs North-North trade
Not all mindsets are like those of the West - Columbus and his ilk vs China’s Zheng
Complementarity – Chinese and Western ways of thinking
About coups - France and Niger’s uranium
China’s green stride towards sustainable industrialisation
Greening the Belt and Road Initiative
Restoring nature in cities
Helping refugees
China encirclement by US bases
Islands of coherence